Goldman Warns Prolonged Hormuz Disruption Could Keep Brent Above $100

Goldman Sachs has indicated that crude oil prices could remain elevated if restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz continue for an extended period. According to the bank’s latest assessment, Brent crude may average above $100 per barrel this year if tanker movement through the key route stays largely restricted for another month.

While a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been announced, the situation around the strait remains uncertain. Iran continues to exercise tight control over vessel movements, and normal shipping activity has yet to fully resume. Market participants, including shipowners and traders, are waiting for clearer security assurances before resuming regular transit.

The investment bank noted that although it recently lowered its base price outlook following the ceasefire announcement, upside risks still dominate the market. In scenarios where disruptions persist, supply constraints in the Middle East could intensify.

Goldman’s projections suggest that if the current conditions continue, Brent prices could stay above the $100 mark through the second half of the year. In a more severe case involving further production losses, prices could climb even higher—potentially reaching around $120 per barrel in the third quarter and remaining elevated near $115 towards year-end.

Oil prices have already reacted to the ongoing uncertainty, with both major benchmarks showing gains as concerns over supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz persist.

Overall, despite diplomatic efforts, the market outlook remains highly sensitive to developments around this critical global oil chokepoint.

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