Goldman Sachs Lowers Oil Price Outlook Following Ceasefire Developments

Goldman Sachs has revised its crude oil price projections after the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and the United States, signaling a softer near-term outlook for the market. The update came even as fresh uncertainties emerged around the stability of the agreement.

The bank now expects Brent crude to average around $90 per barrel in the current quarter, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected near $87 per barrel. Despite recent fluctuations, both benchmarks are still trading close to the upper $90 range, with the price gap between them gradually narrowing.

Analysts attributed the downward revision to easing geopolitical risk premiums and early signs of improving oil flows through key transit routes, including the Strait of Hormuz. However, forecasts for the third quarter remain unchanged, with Brent expected to average $82 per barrel and WTI around $77.

Looking further ahead, the outlook becomes slightly more cautious, with projections for the final quarter indicating Brent at approximately $80 per barrel and WTI at $75.

At the same time, Goldman highlighted the possibility of a more volatile scenario. In case of renewed disruptions or escalation leading to production losses of around 2 million barrels per day, prices could surge significantly, potentially pushing Brent close to $115 per barrel later in the year.

Recent developments have already raised concerns about the durability of the ceasefire, with reports of fresh attacks on key infrastructure and rising tensions in the region. These uncertainties continue to keep the oil market highly sensitive to geopolitical shifts.

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