China PVC Rebound Gathers Pace as Export Tax Rebate Cut Reshapes Market Dynamics

China’s PVC market continued its upward movement into mid-January, extending the rebound that began in late 2025. Prices firmed further as the cancellation of the 13% PVC export tax rebate, effective April 1, 2026, increasingly influenced market sentiment and export planning.

Local ethylene-based PVC K67 maintained its recovery from December’s all-time lows, supported by stronger futures, rising costs, and firmer producer offers. However, acetylene-based PVC remained largely stable at historic lows, showing only limited upward adjustments amid weaker fundamentals and cautious demand.

FOB China and import PVC K67 prices also sustained their rebound from 2008 lows, with ChemOrbis data showing continued gains through mid-January. Although trading activity has slowed slightly in recent weeks, expectations remain pointed toward further upside.

Early this week (starting January 12), domestic producers announced fresh increases of CNY 150/ton ($22/ton) for both ethylene- and acetylene-based K67-68 grades. Export offers also moved $20/ton higher, though traders described buying interest as mostly cautious ahead of the policy shift.

Export sentiment has strengthened notably since the January 8 announcement by China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration confirming the removal of the 13% rebate for HS codes 39041090, 39042100, and 39042200. Overseas buyers have accelerated inquiries in anticipation of higher prices after April.

Chinese traders reported a rush to ship cargoes before the rebate deadline, with some estimating that export PVC prices could rise by around $100/ton once the policy takes effect. A Taiwanese supplier noted that Chinese sellers may offer aggressively ahead of April to reduce stocks, but the rebate removal is expected to tighten regional availability and support prices over the medium term.

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