Aramco Says Hormuz Disruptions May Push Oil Market Recovery to 2027

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has warned that ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could significantly delay the recovery of global oil markets, potentially extending the rebalancing process until 2027.

Speaking after the company’s first-quarter earnings announcement, Nasser said prolonged interruptions to oil flows are creating major challenges for the global energy market. According to him, even if the Strait eventually returns to normal operations, restoring market balance could still take considerable time due to the scale of the current disruption.

Nasser stated that global markets are presently losing nearly 100 million barrels of oil supply every week as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted. Tanker movement in the region has reportedly fallen sharply, with only two to five vessels crossing daily compared to around 70 ships under normal conditions.

Despite weaker current consumption, Aramco believes the decline in demand is temporary and linked more to supply rationing rather than permanent destruction of demand. The company expects oil demand to recover strongly once normal shipping activity resumes.

To reduce the impact of Gulf disruptions, Aramco has increased the use of its East-West pipeline network, redirecting crude exports toward the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Through these alternative routes, the company has managed to maintain around 60–70% of its export volumes.

The company is also evaluating plans to further expand export capacity at Yanbu while increasing refined product shipments from western Saudi terminals.

Nasser additionally noted that Aramco remains capable of quickly increasing production if market conditions require it. According to the company, Saudi crude output could be raised to its maximum sustainable capacity of 12 million barrels per day in less than three weeks if necessary.

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